Return of Plainclothes Politics

So it has been a year since I started and then abandoned this blog, and I am feeling like I need a new outlet for my thoughts about the current state of politics in America. It is time to start blogging again. We have undergone a lot of changes in the last year, The glow of Obama's historic election has faded, and the Tea Party movement is now in full swing. Regardless of political affiliation, however, the vast majority of Americans now agree that government is broken. Two polls in the last week have placed Congress' approval rating at around 15%, and I am certainly included in the 85%.
My students have been asking me lately what I think will happen in the 2010 and 2012 elections, so I will make this first post in the new year one of prediction.

2010: This will be very similar to 1994, when Democrats lost over 50 seats in the House. the difference this time, however, is that not only are Democrats unpopular, many people are not any more excited about Republicans. My hope, then, is that this election is one in which incumbents lose large amounts of seats, and it just so happens that Democrats hold many more of those seats. There will likely be a lot more turnover in Congress this November than in the past several elections. Congressional leadership will get a much-needed shakeup, as Harry Reid will lose his reelection bid in Nevada.

2012: While Dems will lose a lot of seats, Republicans will only grow more divided over the next two years, as they fail just as badly as Democrats to fix the growing problems that conservatives look to them to fix. Newt Gingrich will emerge as the surprise nominee for Republicans, and the Ron Paul libertarians and Sarah Palin Tea Partiers will tear the party apart. The economy will turn around in 2011, and Obama will manage to take most of the credit, as Americans will still be sour towards Congress. Obama will win in a close reelection bid.